英国脱欧对溧阳生物质颗粒机行业的影响 Brexit and the UK biomass burn
North America accounts for the lion’s share of long-term contract deliveries to the UK, but a strong dollar against the euro had left Europe — especially Portugal and the Baltic states — supplying most of the UK’s marginal and spot demand in recent months. Luckily for those European producers, post-referendum jitters dragged down the euro as well as sterling against the dollar, so it looks likely that the status quo will continue for the time being in terms of price competitiveness.
MGT has secured its expected wood pellet demand from US biomass producer Enviva in a sterling-denominated contract, avoiding currency risk. But the project is well behind schedule and a start date has been proposed that is beyond the deadline put forward by government-owned Low Carbon Contracts, which manages the CFD contracts. So far Low Carbon Contracts has allowed extensions to the project’s timeline, but a government looking to balance the books could encourage it to be stricter with deadlines in the future.
但Lynemouth电站已经步入正轨，并于12月获得欧盟的援助审批。一半以上的预期140万吨/年的需求已由与Enviva公司的合同保障 - 20%以英镑计价，剩余部分以美元。但是，作为一个捷克公司，EPH公司将如何继续投资于受欧盟规定限制的市场？
But Lynemouth is on track, and gained EU state-aid approval in December. A contract for over half its expected 1.4mn t/yr demand has been secured with Enviva — 20pc denominated in sterling, with the remainder in dollars. But, as a Czech company, how keen will EPH be to continue to invest in a market untethered by EU regulations?
同时，德拉克斯发电站在等待欧盟国家对差价合约（CFD）援助调查的结果，早在2014年4月授予其发电机组转换。无论脱欧与否，至少在未来两年内，英国仍受到欧盟法律的约束，该调查的结果就好像会决定德拉克斯发电站是否能得到CFD补贴。但是，这次公投带来的不确定性，在英国和布鲁塞尔，其结果不太可能加快决策。
Meanwhile Drax is still waiting for the outcome of an EU state aid investigation into the CFD it was granted for its unit 1 conversion back in April 2014. With the UK set to be bound by EU law for at least the next two years, it is likely that the results of that investigation will determine whether or not Drax is permitted to receive the CFD subsidy, whether Brexit proceeds or not. But the uncertainty thrown up by the referendum and its outcome, in the UK and in Brussels, is unlikely to have sped up the decision.
但即使这样，也远远超过其他欧洲国家的新需求。欧洲需求最大的新的潜在市场是荷兰，在荷兰SDE+补贴预计将支持350万吨/年木屑颗粒发电需求，从零提高该国目前的发电需求。但是，在英国，这些项目都依赖于政府政策 - 补贴这还没有确定。
But even that well outweighs the emerging demand in other European countries. The biggest new potential source of European demand is the Netherlands, where SDE+ subsidies are expected to support up to 3.5mn t/yr of wood pellet demand for power generation, raising the country’s current generation needs from zero. But, as in the UK, those projects are dependent on government policy and subsidies – which have not all been granted yet.
Even if none of the UK projects in the works were to come online, as long as the existing demand could be maintained — barring retrospective cuts to existing subsidies, or new policies that made biomass burn in the UK simply unaffordable — the UK market will remain the centre of industrial biomass demand in Europe for the foreseeable future.